Illinois Global Review

With the 2024 election resulting in a second Trump term, many Americans are contemplating how US foreign relations will shift. One of these changes could potentially be US NATO membership. Throughout both Trump's 2020 and 2024 election cycles, President Donald Trump has made verbal remarks about his wish to end NATO membership. He contends that allied governments should pay a certain charge or cost in exchange for US protection and if such member states refuse or do not pay a certain threshold, the US will not fulfill its defensive obligations.

NATO itself first began in 1949 as a post-World War II treaty organization with the contentious goal of halting and containing Soviet expansion. The sole reason for NATO’s creation was to establish a defense pact between western actors and post-Soviet states, disabling Russia’s ability to expand onto weaker countries. The most important part of NATO that binds military action is Article IV. Article IV explicitly states that an attack on one member is an attack on all member states.

However, Trump's verbal remarks tell a different approach, as he explains only member states in which “pay” will be protected while others who outright refuse or pay under a certain threshold will be left out to dry. As CNN reports, “During the campaign, Trump also indicated he would only adhere to NATO’s mutual defense commitment for countries who are contributing enough of their annual budgets to defense”(CNN,1). This approach would pressure NATO members into paying the US a fee for military protection instead of adhering to NATO’s article IV commitment.

Given the ongoing conflicts across the world, some fear US withdrawal from NATO would leave some allied states vulnerable. As an illustration, consider the conflict in Ukraine, as many worry that a US withdrawal from NATO could give the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, a leg up in future offensive operations. Smaller countries such as the Baltic states and Finland may be at risk of future Russian invasion if the US decides to withdraw from NATO. Trump himself has made further verbal remarks when asked about Russian aggression. “No, I would not protect you,” Trump recalled telling that president. “In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”(CNN,1). This again alluding to the new policy of NATO protection only functioning when the US receives some financial benefit. Despite being the creator of NATO and actively engaging for the last 75 years, President Trump could be the first US president to alter NATO promises or downright recede from the alliance and there would be little Congress could do to stop him. We saw this hint of withdrawal in his first term when criticizing NATO allies for insufficient defense spending. From Trump himself at a rally this year, he recalled telling allies, “If we don’t pay, are you still going to protect us? … Absolutely not.” (CNN,1).

But does Trump have the constitutional power to alter NATO membership? Yes. In addition to gaining the presidency, the Republican Party has unified control of Congress. With little opposition to begin with, Trump's decision on whether to pressure states for financial support or to outright withdraw could be easier than anticipated. The presidency has immense authority over foreign policy and Trump could use that to potentially alter NATO commitments. Trump used this strategy in his first term to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Moreover, the political punishment for the withdrawal could ultimately be subpar, as there is no consensus that Congress would have any legal standing to punish or enforce NATO membership if Trump ultimately decides to withdraw or extort member states.

Overall, with Donald Trump being elected as the 47th president of the United States, NATO membership and allied relations are under tension, as throughout his campaign and earlier presidency he has consistently criticized NATO members stating how members need to “pay up” or they will not be protected. Trump’s possible withdrawal or disengagement could lead to allied countries becoming vulnerable to threats that were previously nonexistent. With Russia continuing its offensive in Ukraine, it is essential that the US and NATO continue to work together with a unified front and stick to their promises of military protection.

Sources: Politico NATO CNN