Illinois Global Review

The German Bundestag Elections happened less than a month ago, and now that the final results have been announced, what does that mean for Germany?

Context:

After the German Elections in 2021, a ruling coalition of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Greens was formed, electing Olaf Scholz, the leader of the SDP as Chancellor of Germany. However, this coalition broke apart due to budget policy differences between the SDP and FDP. This split necessitated a new election to form a new government.

The Social Democratic Party:

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is the primary center-left party in Germany, and was the leader of the previous government. The SPD draws support from industrial workers, and urban progressive academics. In 2021, the SPD won 25.6% of the vote and 206 out of 735 seats, and was the largest party in Germany. However, because it could not make an entirely left-wing coalition, the SPD was forced to collaborate with the neoliberal FDP and the Greens, forming an ineffective coalition. Having three parties in a coalition makes it very difficult to pass legislation which leads to weak governance, their popular vote share decreased to 16% and they lost 86 seats, taking them from the largest to the third-largest party. While no longer the primary party, the SPD will likely stay in government, joining the center-right CDU in a coalition government.

The Christian Democratic Union:

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is the historically largest party in Germany. The CDU draws support from its strongholds in the staunchly Catholic South Germany, rural areas, and small-business owners. In 2021, the CDU suffered its worst election result, mainly due to backlash to sixteen years of CDU rule. (Piehler) However, due to the ineffectiveness of the SPD-led coalition, the CDU once again became the largest party in Germany, winning 28.5% of the vote and taking 208/630 seats. As the largest party, the CDU would only need one of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) or SPD to form a government. However, the CDU refuses to work with the AfD (due to its far-right stance) so, the CDU will form a coalition with the SPD in the center of the political spectrum.

The Alternative für Deutschland:

The Alternative für Deutschland is the far-right party in Germany. It is highly anti-immigration and was formed in response to Angela Merkel’s immigration policy. Its support is in the former East Germany, the poorest region of Germany, with the fewest immigrants. It is the most male-dominated party, only 17% of its voters are women. In 2021, it saw a significant drop in votes and seats due to its opposition to vaccines and anti-lockdown protests, which were highly unpopular among the Germans. However, in the most recent election, AfD doubled in support, going from 10% to 20% of the vote and 83 to 152 seats.

The Greens:

The Greens are an environmentalist party—one of the parties in the ruling coalition. The Greens draw their support from urban areas, specifically affluent and educated urbanites. It is also the most popular support with women, mainly due to its staunch support for female politicians and feminism. They saw slight losses in the election, mainly due to their base's strong commitment to the party. They went from 14% to 11% and from 118 seats to 85.

Die Linke:

Die Linke (the Left) is the furthest left-leaning party in Germany. It was founded from the remnants of the former communist party in East Germany, and for much of post-reunification Germany, has remained a pariah. It was unlikely that Linke would meet the 5% electoral threshold to receive representatives, as they were polling very low. This was mainly due to a split in the party between the socially conservative wing that was anti-immigration and the socially progressive wing. This split formed the BSW party, and there was a worry that this party would steal away much of the remaining Die Linke support. However, a fierce viral speech (attached here ) condemning CDU collaboration with the AfD by the co-leader of Die Linke, Heidi Reichinnek, helped revive interest in the party. It experienced a late surge of 6% in the polls and gained 25 seats, making Linke the only left-wing party to gain seats in the election.

The Free Democratic Party:

The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is typically the most centrist in elections and is often the decider on which party governs due to its flexibility. It leans right economically, but leans left socially, allowing it to be a coalition partner with almost every other party. The FDP was selected to be a part of the SPD’s coalition; however, the alliance broke down due to a budget dispute. Still, leaked documents showed that the FDP scheme to break the coalition. The German electorate met this with widespread backlash, and the FDP went from 11.4% with 94 seats to 4.3%. By falling below 5%, the FDP could no longer hold any seats in government, which meant their Machiavellian scheme failed.

Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice;

The BSW is the newest party on the German scene. It was created after a split due to anti-immigrant sentiment among Die Linke. It provides a leftist counterpart to the AfD for economic leftists, but people who are regressive socially. There was worry that a strong BSW performance could lead to a volatile coalition between the CDU, SPD, and Greens. Still, the BSW missed out on gaining seats by 0.03% and has threatened legal action over its loss, claiming irregularities with overseas voting.

The South Schleswig Voters' Association:

Last and least among the leading German parties, SSW is a minority party dedicated to serving the Frisian and Danish minority within Germany. Because of its status as a minority party, it does not need to meet the nationwide threshold to achieve seats. Within Schleswig 5.7% of the vote went to the SSW, which kept its one Bundestag seat. It leans left, supporting a robust Nordic model of welfare state. However, due to its singular delegate, it will not play a role in parliament.

In conclusion, the 2025 German election saw a victory for both right and far-right parties in Germany, while currently the CDU refuses to work with the AfD, if the AfD continues to grow in support, the CDU may cross the line and join them. All three parties in the previous government saw significant decreases in seats due to voter backlash to their ineffectiveness, and many of those voters pivoted to radical alternatives leading to record amounts of votes going to far-left parties (Linke and BSW) and the AfD. If the CDU-SPD coalition cannot deal with voters' grievances (economic inequality, immigration, and lack of economic opportunities), the radical parties might seize even more power and destabilize the third largest economy in the world.